Poland: A ‘Goldilocks’ economy with no hikes in the pipeline

Activity in 3Q remained robust, as GDP expanded by 5.1%YoY, but CPI slowed due to supply side shocks. A 'Goldilocks' economy suggests no interest rate hikes, today’s data strongly trimmed rate hike expectations.



Polish GDP: The Details

The second GDP reading confirmed robust 5.1%YoY dynamics in 3Q vs a similar figure of 5.1%YoY in 2Q18. The private consumption moderated a little (from 4.9% to 4.5%YoY), while investments recovered from 4.7% to 9.9%YoY (the slide in 2Q was caused by the negative impact of defence spending in our view). The 3Q reading showed strong public infrastructural outlays (prior to the regional elections) and a surge in expenses of larger companies.

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